The Inaugural Swing Counties Power Rankings
Which 10 counties will help predict and determine the 2024 presidential race?
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Today marks the start of the NFL season. It’s that joyous time of the year where for the next few hours we’re all completely convinced our team is going 17-0 (The Buccaneers are going undefeated and I won’t entertain opposing arguments until they lose this afternoon). So, to celebrate football's return I’m launching our first Swing Counties Power Rankings. These are 10 counties that I believe will help determine and predict the outcome of the election in November. I’ll update these every week or so until election day based on new polling, voter registration data, early vote numbers or other important dynamics in the race I think could help determine the election.
These rankings are a direct reflection of how I currently view the importance and competitiveness of each swing state. Both candidates currently have multiple paths to 270 but, at the moment, I believe Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada are the linchpins that will determine which road is taken to 270. More on this later.
Finally, notice which states didn’t make the list. Four years ago it would have been inconceivable that a list of battleground counties wouldn’t include at least one from Florida. As I wrote earlier this week, Florida is unlikely to be in play this year, despite positive polling for Democrats this week.
⚡ SWING COUNTIES POWER RANKING ⚡
1. ERIE COUNTY, PA
Erie takes the top spot because it’s a true bellwether county in the most important swing state. Harris has seen a meteoric rise in the polls but her numbers in Pennsylvania have underperformed other battleground states. Both candidates have multiple pathways to 270 but Pennsylvania makes things significantly easier for each.
Erie voters have correctly predicted the last four presidential elections, voting for Obama in 2008 and 2012, Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. If history is any indication, the winner of Erie will likely win Pennsylvania, therefore likely winning the election.
2. WASHOE COUNTY, NV
Depending on what happens with Pennsylvania, Nevada could become a very important state in the race to 270, despite only having 6 electoral votes. In the last three presidential elections Democrats have won the two most populous counties in Nevada while Republicans have won the remaining. Washoe County has become more diverse over the last decade and a half. Polling in Nevada is tight and whoever wins Nevada could win the election. Trump nearly won Washoe County in 2016 before Joe Biden won more comfortably in 2020. If Trump’s result is closer to 2016 then 2020, he could put a real scare into Democrats in Nevada.
3. COBB COUNTY, GA
While I believe Pennsylvania is the lynchpin to the election at this moment in time, I could make a very strong argument that Georgia is friendlier territory for Harris. And if she wins Georgia, Trump’s path becomes very difficult, regardless of what happens in Pennsylvania. Barring a major drop in polling, Georgia will remain high on this list for the foreseeable future.
Georgia has a whopping 159 counties, though most have small populations. That makes the small handful of counties with large populations very important. Cobb County is the third most populous county behind Fulton and Gwinnett (see below!) counties. Like many major urban areas in the south, Cobb County has seen rapid demographic shifts over the last 20 years that have shifted the county politically from solidly red to reliably blue. While it has a larger percentage of white voters than other battleground counties like Gwinnett, black and hispanic voters make up more than 40% of the population. Much like its cousin Gwinnett below, Hillary Clinton was the first Democrat to win Cobb since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
4. BUCKS COUNTY, PA
Two of the top four spots hail from the Keystone State, underscoring how important, yet unsettled, Pennsylvania is. The most direct route to the White House for Harris involves winning Pennsylvania, while a Trump win forces Harris to hunt for electoral votes in the Sunbelt. While Democrats have won Bucks County in every presidential race since 1992, it’s exactly the type of place where voter dissatisfaction with the Biden Administration could cost them valuable votes. Voter registration in Bucks County is evenly split with both Democrats and Republicans making up 41% of registered voters.
Once a major industrial area, Buck County has seen increased population growth over the last decade in part due to a thriving biotechnology industry, which has become a major employer in the county. In 2012 and 2016 Democrats failed to hit 50%, which they had done in the previous three elections. Trump has never hit higher than 47.6%. Harris will need to break 50%, as Biden did in 2020, for her to have a chance on election night.
5. KENT COUNTY, MI
Kent County might be home to a long list of Republican politicians and activist donors like Gerald Ford and the DeVos Family, but it’s voted for the Democratic candidate at the top of the ticket in the last three elections. Michigan voted for Trump in 2016 and flipped blue again in 2020 to vote for Biden. The Detroit area gets a lot of attention but outside of Detroit, Kent County has become a major bellwether area. Home to Grand Rapids, the county has grown more diverse in the last two decades with the white population shrinking from 83% in 2000 to 72% in 2020.
Kent County is a microcosm of Democrats' struggles in the midwest and upper midwest since 2008. Democrats won Kent County in 2008, lost it in 2012 and 2016 and Biden won it back in 2020.
6. GWINNETT COUNTY, GA
When people wonder how Georgia went from being an easy Republican win to a true swing state I point them to Gwinnett County for the answer. Few places in America have seen as much demographic change over the last 30 years. In 1990, Gwinnett county was over 90% white. Today it’s a minority majority county and white residents make up only 32% of the population. It also has a significant Hispanic population which presents challenges and opportunities for both candidates.
Politically, Gwinnett County had been a solidly red county. Jimmy Carter was the only Democrat to win Gwinnett until Hillary Clinton won it in 2016. Joe Biden widened Democrats’ gains in 2020 on his way to narrowly winning the state. As the second most populous county in the state, Harris must not only win Gwinnett but turn out voters in large numbers to win the state.
7. SAUK COUNTY, WI
While Sauk County doesn’t have the large populations of Milwaukee, Dane or Waukesha, Sauk has a well-earned reputation as a bellwether county in one of the most important bellwether states. Like Erie County above, Sauk has correctly voted for the last four presidents. Watch tiny Sauk for clues about how this election might shake out
8. CLARK COUNTY, NV
As mentioned in Washoe County above, Nevada’s six electoral votes could prove pivotal late on election night depending on how the bigger prizes on the east coast shake out. Clark County, home to Las Vegas, has nearly three quarters of Nevada’s population. Harris will likely win the county but the margin of that victory will determine who wins the state. Democrats have lost ground in the county since Obama won 58% in 2008. Both candidates have tried appealing to voters in Clark County with dueling plans to eliminate taxes on tipped income, a hot issue in a county with a lot of hospitality workers.
9. LACKAWANA COUNTY, PA
If history is any indication, Harris should win Lackawana County. It’s voted for the Democratic nominee in every presidential election since 1984. But, Democrats' margins in the county have declined significantly since 2012. If Harris can win Lackawana County by anything close to Democrats 2008 & 2012 numbers then she has a real chance to carry the state. For Trump, he doesn’t need to win the county but he needs to keep his margins closer to 2016 then 2020.
10. MARICOPA COUNTY, AZ
Arizona is one of two states to enter the swing state club after Biden won them in 2020, along with Georgia. Arizona is probably more a must win for Trump then it is for Harris but a win in Arizona would make Harris’s path to 270 much easier. Maricopa County is home to 62% of the state's population. The share of the white population has dropped from 95% in 1970 to just under 60% in 2020, while the hispanic population has grown from 14.5% to 30.5% in the same time period.
Joe Biden was the first Democrat to win Maricopa County in a presidential since 1948. But he only won the state by 10,457 votes. Turnout and margins in this county of 4.4 million could help decide the outcome of the election.