Swing Counties Power Rankings: AZ out, NC in
North Carolina and Wisconsin rise in this week's rankings while Arizona and Georgia fall.
A lot has happened since our first power rankings two weeks ago. The debate two weeks ago caused modest movement in the polls and in the last week we got a slew of high quality swing state surveys. That said, the overall dynamics of the race have stayed the same.
The eventual winner will need to cobble together enough electoral votes out of the seven battleground states to get to 270. Pennsylvania is still the centerpiece of each campaign’s preferred roadmap to 270, though each side can technically win without Pennsylvania.
Based on campaign schedules and paid media spending each campaign has spent the last two works working to shore up their preferred route to 270. For Harris that’s the “blue wall”-- Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. For Trump, he’s betting on Pennsylvania, North Carolina plus the traditionally Republican sunbelt– Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.
There are some modest changes to today’s rankings that reflect recent polling and are a reflection of where the campaigns seem to be battling things out. North Carolina enters our rankings as a handful of polls have shown the state is very much in play. A win for Harris in North Carolina would be a major coup and all but shut down Trump’s path but a Trump win would make things very tight for Harris.
Wisconsin also added a second county to the list this week. Swing state polling over the last two weeks have shown a very tight race in Wisconsin– maybe the closest of all the “blue wall” states.
New Additions: New Hanover County, NC & Racine County, WI
Dropped: Lackawanna County, PA & Maricopa County, AZ
⚡ SWING COUNTIES POWER RANKING ⚡
1. ERIE COUNTY, PA
Erie retains the top spot this week because it’s a true bellwether county in the most important swing state. Erie voters have correctly predicted the last four presidential elections, voting for Obama in 2008 and 2012, Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. If history is any indication, the winner of Erie will likely win Pennsylvania, therefore likely winning the election.
This week we were lucky enough to get polling from Erie County. A Suffolk poll showed Harris with a 4-point edge in this important county. Both vice presidential candidates made stops in Erie over the last two weeks.
2. WASHOE COUNTY, NV
With each candidate still having multiple credible paths to 270, Nevada continues to have an outsized role, despite only having 6 electoral votes. In the last three presidential elections Democrats have won the two most populous counties in Nevada while Republicans have won the remaining. Even though Washoe County has become more diverse over the last decade and a half, Trump nearly won the county in 2016 before Joe Biden won more comfortably in 2020. If Trump’s result is closer to 2016 then 2020, he could put a real scare into Democrats in Nevada.
There has been very little high-quality polling out of Nevada since the debate. Harris has seen a modest bounce nationally and in other swing states, like Pennsylvania, since the debate but we’ll have to wait a bit longer to see if her bounce stretched to Nevada. Harris currently has a razor thin 0.7% lead in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.
3. NEW HANOVER COUNTY, NC
Democrats haven’t won North Carolina since Barack Obama flipped the state in 2008. The Harris campaign has been working hard to put North Carolina back in play and so far the polling is deadlocked. Though there hasn’t been much post-debate polling, a handful of polls before the debate were positive for Harris.
Joe Biden lost North Carolina by a little over 74,000 votes in 2020. While Biden performed well in the eight populous Democratic counties, his margins in the “swingier” counties trailed the margins that Governor Roy Cooper hit in his successful 2020 re-election campaign. Biden won New Hanover County, for example, by 2-points while Cooper won by 8. In what will certainly be a very close race in North Carolina, Harris will need margins closer to Cooper’s then Biden’s in swing counties like New Hanover, which have only voted for a Democrat at the presidential level once since 1980.
4. BUCKS COUNTY, PA
Bucks County retained its top five spot, underscoring how important, yet unsettled, Pennsylvania still is. While Democrats have won Bucks County in every presidential race since 1992, it’s exactly the type of place where voter dissatisfaction with the Biden Administration could cost them valuable votes. Voter registration in Bucks County is evenly split with both Democrats and Republicans making up 41% of registered voters.
In 2012 and 2016 Democrats failed to hit 50%, which they had done in the previous three elections. Trump has never hit higher than 47.6%. If Harris can hit 50% in Bucks County, as Biden did in 2020, she could be looking at a good night.
5. KENT COUNTY, MI
Michigan is the best performing of the “blue wall” states for Harris. She enjoys a 2.6% lead in the FiveThirtyEight polling averages (compared to +1.4% in Pennsylvania and +1.7 in Wisconsin). If Harris wins Michigan on election night it will likely be in part because of a strong performance in Kent County.
Kent County has been a microcosm of Democrats' struggles in the midwest and upper midwest since 2008. Democrats won Kent County in 2008, lost it in 2012 and 2016 and Biden won it back in 2020.
6. SAUK COUNTY, WI
As we talked about above, Wisconsin is very tight. While Sauk County doesn’t have the large populations of Milwaukee, Dane or Waukesha, Sauk has a well-earned reputation as a bellwether county in one of the most important bellwether states. Like Erie County above, Sauk has correctly voted for the last four presidents. Wisconsin is shaping up to be very close, as it was in 2020, and Sauk will be a good bellwether down the stretch.
7. COBB COUNTY, GA
Donald Trump has a narrow 1-point lead in the FiveThirtyEight Georgia polling average, though there has been little quality polling out of Georgia since the debate. Both campaigns are investing heavily in the state, both in paid money resources and in time on the ground. Both Harris and Walz were in Georgia this week and JD Vance made a stop in Atlanta last week.
Georgia has a whopping 159 counties, though most have small populations. That makes the small handful of counties with large populations very important. Cobb County is the third most populous county behind Fulton and Gwinnett (see below!) counties. Like many major urban areas in the south, Cobb County has seen rapid demographic shifts over the last 20 years that have shifted the county politically from solidly red to reliably blue. While it has a larger percentage of white voters than other battleground counties like Gwinnett, black and hispanic voters make up more than 40% of the population. Much like its cousin Gwinnett below, Hillary Clinton was the first Democrat to win Cobb since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
8. RACINE COUNTY, WI
The truth is, you could pick any number of counties in Wisconsin for this list. But Racine County fascinates me. It has voted for the winning presidential candidate in 28 of the last 33 presidential elections dating back to the late 1800s. Barack Obama won Racine County in 2008 and 2012 but Democrats haven’t won it since. Clinton held Trump under 50% in 2016 but Biden lost ground in 2020. Racine has gotten more diverse in the last two decades and winning Wisconsin could come down to how many votes each candidate can steal in bellwether counties like Racine.
9. CLARK COUNTY, NV
As I’ve said several times, Nevada’s six electoral votes could prove pivotal late on election night depending on how the bigger prizes on the East Coast shake out. Clark County, home to Las Vegas, has nearly three quarters of Nevada’s population. Harris will likely win the county but the margin of that victory will determine who wins the state. Democrats have lost ground in the county since Obama won 58% in 2008. There’s been little in the way of high-quality polling in Nevada over the last few weeks but it’s safe to assume things remain very tight in the state.
10. GWINNETT COUNTY, GA
When people wonder how Georgia went from being an easy Republican win to a true swing state I point them to Gwinnett County for the answer. Few places in America have seen as much demographic change over the last 30 years. In 1990, Gwinnett county was over 90% white. Today it’s a minority majority county and white residents make up only 32% of the population. It also has a significant Hispanic population which presents challenges and opportunities for both candidates.
Politically, Gwinnett County had been a solidly red county. Jimmy Carter was the only Democrat to win Gwinnett until Hillary Clinton won it in 2016. Joe Biden widened Democrats’ gains in 2020 on his way to narrowly winning the state. As the second most populous county in the state, Harris must not only win Gwinnett but turn out voters in large numbers to win the state.