Here's Where the Race for the House Stands

With one day to go, Democratic incumbents are holding on and challengers are staying competitive giving Dems a great chance to flip the chamber.

This one is going to be short, but I wanted to talk House races before we get to election day. Back in late September, the last time we broke down the race for control of the House of Representatives, I said I thought the race was largely a toss up. That was largely because of the historically small number of competitive battleground seats available to Democrats to play offense in. I was (and continue to be) also concerned about the “undervote” issue that has plagued Democrats for the last several cycles. 

As we sit here today, 30 hours or so out from the first polls closing I feel slightly more confident that Democrats will, in fact, flip the House but I still believe the margin will likely be small. Data and polling on House races isn’t as prevalent as it is for the presidential race but based on the available numbers I think Democrats are headed for a similar majority as Republicans currently hold (4-5 seats). 

There are three main reasons why I’m more confident than I was a month ago that Democrats will take back the House. First, Democrats have performed surprisingly well in the midwest this cycle. In Iowa, for example, Democrats look to be in good shape to pick up two seats. Tony Vargas in Nebraska is giving Don Bacon a serious run for his money and Democrats will likely retain at least one of the two tough open Michigan seats. Coming out of the midwest picking up 3-4 seats would be a great result for Democrats. 

The second reason for my increased optimism is that the Democratic incumbents in tough races seem to be holding on. As I mentioned back in September, Democrats needed to protect a handful of incumbents in very red seats even before they attempted to expand the map and pick up the 5 seats needed to flip the chamber. Every Democratic incumbent lost would mean finding another Republican seat to flip, and as we mentioned above, there’s a historically small pool of offensive opportunities. A lot can still happen but it appears Democrats are successfully defending their vulnerable incumbents in Maine, Alaska, Washington, and Pennsylvania. 

Finally, voters have been telling us for months that the abortion issue is among the most important issues to them. But I fully admit that I underestimated just how galvanizing that issue was going to be in places outside of the blue states or the traditional battleground states. Democratic candidates in deep red states like Iowa (where a restrictive abortion ban went into place this summer) have leaned into the issue and it appears it’s working. (Ann Selzer credits the abortion issue, in part, for Harris’s stunning rise in her Iowa polling). If the abortion issue ends up being as powerful as the data suggests it is then it could help swing a few of these very close House races towards the Democrats. 

It’s been a solid month for House Democrats. House races are notoriously unpredictable and several of these key battleground races remain toss ups but Democrats will enter election day with a solid opportunity to take back the chamber (narrowly).