Breaking Down the Extremely Tight Race to Control the House
Fewer battleground seats this cycle has led to a very competitive race for control of the House of Representatives
Much like the presidential race, the fight to control the House of Representatives is extremely tight and is going to come down to the wire. As things currently stand, it’s likely that we may not know who will control the House for several days after the polls close. Democrats only need a net gain of 4 seats to take control of the chamber but they face stiffer headwinds than many predicted a year ago. Democrats had hoped to get a boost from new congressional maps drawn in New York, Alabama, Georgia and Louisiana but much of those gains were whipped out by an aggressive Republican redistricting push in North Carolina.
While control of the House is truly a toss up right now it’s almost certain that this will not be a wave year. Whoever holds control next year will do so by a very small margin. As we enter the final month of the election let's take a look at where the fight over the House stands and what each party is watching down the stretch.
Lay of the Land
Control of the House is likely to come down to about 43 competitive seats. Of those 43 seats, about 24 are true toss up races. For Democrats to win back the House they will need to win 65% of these 43 battleground seats, which translates to about 28 seats. One of the reasons that the House is likely to remain incredibly tight is that the number of battleground seats this cycle is significantly lower than it has been in the previous 3 cycles. As of early October in previous years, there were 59 battleground races in 2022, 58 in 2020 and 71 in 2018. Some of this is because partisan redistricting and increased polarization means fewer “toss up” seats exist. But a bigger factor this cycle is that we never saw a wave of members in competitive seats retiring or running for other offices as we have in previous years. Only 4 of the 43 competitive seats this cycle are open seats while 19 of the 59 battleground seats in 2022 were open.
The lack of competitive seats this cycle means Democrats have fewer pick up opportunities than they had hoped for. Breaking it down even further, of the 43 competitive seats we’re talking about, 20 are currently Republican held seats, 19 are Democratic held and 4 are open. When you factor in the four open seats, which are all currently held by Democrats, then Democrats need to defend 23 seats vs. 20 races where Republicans are on defense.
That means that Democrats not only need to defend their 19 incumbents in tough races but they need to find at least four offensive opportunities out of the 20 seats currently held by Republicans. If Democrats lose any of the seats currently held by a Democratic member or any of the 4 Democratically held open seats then the four seats needed to flip the House gets bigger. Netting 4 out of a possible 20 is doable but having more offensive targets would be preferable, especially when you consider how tough the races in Alaska, Maine, Washington and Pennsylvania could be. This is a key advantage for Republicans.
A Good Defense is the Best Offense?
We’ve all heard the old football adage that says the best defense is a good offense. While that’s usually true, the opposite is likely true this cycle. Given that each side needs to defend roughly the same number of seats, this year's battle for the House is going to come down to incumbent protection in a way it hasn’t in years past. So who’s job will be harder?
Each side is going to have to protect some number of incumbents who represent districts deep in enemy territory. Democrats, for their part, must protect deep red seats in Alaska and Maine, as well as two tough swing seats in Michigan that are open this cycle. Republicans have a slew of members in New York and California that represent districts that Biden won in 2020. Republicans have 14 members in districts that Biden won in 2020, while Democrats have 5 members in districts that Trump won.
Outside of fundraising, which we’ll get to below, one of the few advantages that Democrats do have this cycle is that 32 of the 43 competitive races we’re looking into are in districts that Biden won in 2020– though he won some by razor thin margins.
Will the Undervote Rear its Head?
In the last three presidential cycles Democrats have had a serious undervote problem. The undervote is the amount of drop off between the top of the ticket– in this case the presidential race– and the down ballot races, like House races. In 2020 and 2016 there were over 4 million less votes cast for Democratic House candidates than there were for the Democratic candidate for president. In 2012, the undervote on the Democratic side was 6.2 million votes. Undervoting is a significantly smaller problem on the Republican side. As an extreme example, there were 197,245 MORE votes cast for Republican House candidates in 2016 than there were for Donald Trump.
This Democratic undervote issue could be because of ticket splitting or because a significant enough portion of Democratic voters are not voting down their ballot. While this phenomenon is worth watching, it hasn't prevented Democrats from netting seats– Democrats netted House seats in 3 of the last 4 presidential election cycles– but it could be costing Democrats precious votes in the closely contested races needed to win a majority.
We all have a few of those Republican friends who say they agree with Donald Trump’s policies but can’t stand him which is why they’re voting against him. If these voters, who are by and large very conservative, vote for Kamala Harris but vote Republican on the rest of their ballot that could be enough to throw a couple of these toss up races into the GOP column.
Who Has the Edge Going Into the Final Month?
The short answer is it’s hard to say. If I absolutely had to choose I’d say Democrats have a very, very slight edge. But I think there are three big factors that could influence which way the House tilts. One benefits Democrats, One Republicans and the final one is up for grabs.
We’ve talked a lot about the current political climate in our discussion of the presidential race. But I think it’s worth mentioning again in the context of these battleground House races. According to a report this week from Gallup, the current political environment in the U.S. favors Republicans. According to the report, Americans are deeply dissatisfied with the economy, more U.S. adults identify with the Republican party than they have in the past and more Americans believe the Republican better will better address their issues. In close House races where both candidates have low name ID that could be a significant advantage for Republicans.
For the Democrats’ part, they have significantly outraised Republicans on both the candidate side and the party committee side (DCCC vs RCCC). Democrats will head into the final 40 days with a significant cash on hand advantage which should allow them to outspend Republicans in paid media down the stretch. If Democrats are going to successfully swim against the political stream then they’ll need to maximize that money advantage.
Finally, what happens at the top of the ticket will have a major impact on several of these races and could help swing the House one way or the other. If the Harris Campaign is successful in pulling out young voters, minority voters and women in big numbers in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona then Harris could pull a couple close House races over the line with her. But a strong close by Trump, which he’s done in the past two elections, could swing things back the other direction. Momentum is a powerful thing in close races so keep an eye on which of the presidential campaigns heads into the final few days with momentum.
The bottomline is the House is currently a toss up. Each side has a few important advantages but the smaller than normal pool of competitive seats likely means that whichever party controls the chamber is looking at a razor thin 1-3 seat majority.